March Jobs Report

One major economic headline took the news on Friday just as all were preparing for the weekend religious double-header of Passover and Easter.  Namely, the jobs figure for March was surprisingly weak with just 126,000 new jobs created.  On top of downward revisions for January and February, it was a very weak quarter for creating new employment opportunities.

This is in the context, however, that we had the same aberration last year at this time when Q1 2014 saw a drop in GDP because of the weather.  This year, it might have been the same with a colossal amount of snow in the Northeast and cold weather across the nation.

The other headwind was the strength of the US dollar which was on a tear all of last year.  At elevated levels, it left our exporters in a difficult spot as our goods became much more expensive to foreign consumers.

If this slowdown in jobs does not worsen, it could be a good thing for the US economy.  There is discussion that it might delay the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates, and with a slower growing US economy the dollar could weaken from these highs.  Both of those factors ultimately feed better long-term growth.

The economy is a cycle that ebbs and flows, each of these states providing possible benefits if the overall structure is sound.  But with all such data, time will tell as well look to spring and thaw from this snow season.

 

David Matias

Managing Principal

Vodia Capital, LLC